The political struggle over congressional redistricting is intensifying as Texas and other Republican-led states move to redraw district maps ahead of the 2026 elections. California, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, is considering a similar approach in response. The goal on both sides is to maximize their party’s representation in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Eric Schickler, a political scientist at the University of California, Berkeley, says the stakes are high for both parties. “Republicans are making it clear,” Schickler said in an interview. “They’re going to push every advantage they have now in order to hold onto the House of Representatives. And Democrats basically have a limited set of options to counter them.”
Schickler serves as co-director of UC Berkeley’s nonpartisan Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) and recently co-authored *Partisan Nation: The Dangerous New Logic of American Politics in a Nationalized Era* with fellow Berkeley professor Paul Pierson. He will participate in an IGS panel on September 16 examining challenges facing democracy in California.
Gerrymandering and related tactics such as vote suppression and misinformation are increasingly used by both parties to gain electoral advantages, according to political scientists. However, Schickler notes that Republicans have had more opportunities due to their control over more state legislatures and unity within the party.
“Eric Schickler: With stacking the deck, the basic idea is you’re trying to insulate your party from bad election results, make it more likely that you’ll win the election, even if you’re possibly winning fewer votes overall. And so certainly gerrymandering is a standard practice to try to stack the deck.”
Scholars point out that these practices are not new but have become more pronounced as national competition between parties has grown tighter and policy divisions deeper.
In discussing potential outcomes if California adopts its own partisan redistricting plan—currently known as Proposition 50—Schickler said: “More concretely, what Newsom and the Democrats would argue is that if California does nothing, it’s likely that between Texas and other states that Republicans control, they will gain about 11 to 12 seats in the House of Representatives. That would make it almost impossible for Democrats to win the majority, even if they win the overall popular vote in the House by a decent margin. They’d have to win it by three or four points nationally as opposed to just one or two points to get a majority of seats in the House.”
He added: “Whereas, if California passes this redistricting, there will still very likely be more states that do redistricting to favor Republicans than Democrats. In other words, there’ll be 12 seats for Republicans and six for Democrats, so a net gain of six. California alone wouldn’t equal what Republicans are doing, but it partially offsets it.”
While some other Democratic-controlled states like Illinois or Maryland may consider similar actions, Schickler believes significant gains are unlikely outside California.
“I don’t know if I’d say downsides for Democrats. But I think the state’s voters have to weigh this national partisan question against the fact that they’ve liked how the independent, nonpartisan commission process has worked in the state for drawing new congressional districts.”
California’s current system uses an independent commission for redistricting—a model credited with increasing electoral competition and turnover among legislators—but pressure from Republican-led gerrymandering elsewhere has prompted calls for change.
“One thing they’ll weigh is that…this is a temporary change…for elections in 2026, 2028 and 2030,” Schickler noted regarding Prop. 50’s impact on competitiveness.
For Democrats nationwide seeking similar responses through legislative action rather than commissions faces obstacles; unified Democratic control exists in fewer states than Republican control does.
“Republicans are making it clear: They’re going to push every advantage they have now in order to hold onto the House of Representatives. And Democrats basically have a limited set of options to counter them.”
Polling data from UC Berkeley suggests Proposition 50 currently holds about 48% support among registered voters—with opposition at around 32%—but many undecided voters lean toward Democratic-leaning groups such as Latinos and Asian Americans.
“I wouldn’t use the term ‘slam dunk’ based on our poll,” Schickler said.”I do think it starts out in a favorable position…If one wanted to be a pessimist for Prop. 50…most undecideds tend to vote no…”
He also pointed out: “The biggest risk for Newsom is if Prop. 50 fails — that would certainly undermine his national reputation…If he can’t sell California voters [on this measure], that’s going make it harder [to persuade] people he’s going sell [to] a national electorate.”
On legal challenges ahead concerning partisan gerrymandering efforts—including those expected from Texas—Schickler commented: “This Supreme Court basically has said that partisan gerrymandering will not be overturned…Democrats will certainly challenge…the grounds of racial gerrymandering…but this court has greatly reduced scope…Today’s Supreme Court? I’d say it’s not likely…”
Ultimately he concluded: “What we’re seeing now is that redistricting is just being absorbed into national party competition…Once that happens…the incentives…just become overwhelming.”
With most Democratic-led states using nonpartisan commissions compared with Republican counterparts relying less on such mechanisms,[this trend raises questions](https://igs.berkeley.edu/) about whether maintaining fair local processes comes at too great a cost nationally for either side.
