Americans who grow up in states with high levels of violence remain at a greater risk of dying violently even after moving to safer states, according to new research led by Gabriel Lenz, a political scientist at the University of California, Berkeley. The study was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and co-authored by Martin Vinæs Larsen from Aarhus University and Anna Mikkelborg from Colorado State University.
The researchers analyzed millions of U.S. death records dating back to 1959, focusing primarily on white, non-Hispanic Americans due to data limitations. They found that individuals raised in areas with a strong “culture of honor”—typically in the Deep South or former Western frontier states—carry defensive attitudes that increase their likelihood of dying violently regardless of where they relocate.
“Residents and migrants from historically unsafe states … see the world as more dangerous, react more forcefully in aggressive scenarios, value toughness [and] distrust law enforcement,” said Lenz. This mindset persists even among those who move to safer regions such as the Northeast or northern Midwest and affects various demographic groups including married women, people over 75 years old, and those with higher education or income.
Lenz noted: “Our research suggests that many thousands more people have died than if we lived instead in a world where everyone had grown up in Massachusetts, Minnesota or Vermont, or any of the historically very safe states.”
The study traced homicide rates for white Americans from 1933 to 1942 and found that Appalachian states, the Deep South, and old Western frontier states like Kentucky, Louisiana, and Nevada consistently recorded higher homicide rates. Even after residents left these areas for safer locations such as Chicago or Midwestern states, their risk remained elevated compared to those born in traditionally safer places like Massachusetts or Wisconsin.
Lenz explained how these patterns reflect longstanding governmental weaknesses in providing reliable protection: “People don’t realize just what a benefit it is to grow up in a safe state. And if you grew up in a frontier location or the Deep South or the Appalachian highlands, it doesn’t matter where you move — your risk of victimization follows you.”
To understand why this risk persists among migrants from violent regions, nearly 7,500 people were surveyed about their experiences with violence and attitudes toward conflict resolution. Respondents from historically violent states reported seeing their environment as more dangerous and were more likely to endorse aggressive responses when provoked.
“These adaptations may have kept them safe in historically dangerous states,” wrote the researchers. “But may increase their vulnerability to harm in safer states.”
Lenz emphasized that while cultural factors are important contributors to persistent violence across generations and regions, other mechanisms may also be involved: “But we think this may help explain why homicide rates are so persistent across generations and regions,” he said. “The people most at risk aren’t ‘evil,’ and their homicides aren’t the premeditated murders familiar from TV. They’re often the product of anger, fear and escalation — situations where people feel they can’t back down or rely on the state to protect them.”
Data constraints limited analysis mainly to white Americans; Black Americans born during this period were mostly concentrated in Southern high-violence states which made direct comparisons difficult. However, Lenz pointed out similar dynamics could help explain high homicide rates among Black Americans: “Black Americans migrated almost entirely from the most violent states in U.S. history… We just cannot evaluate that mechanism directly using our high-precision migration study design because there is no low-risk comparison group for them.”
A lack of comprehensive birth records similarly restricted analysis for Hispanic communities and recent immigrants.
The researchers developed an online tool allowing users to compare homicide statistics between different birthplaces and destinations within the United States.
